Survival Calculus

The survival calculus models how agents make decisions based on their perceived probability of survival under different strategies.

Core Principle

Agents act to maximize their probability of survival P(S). They choose between two primary strategies:

  1. Acquiescence - Working within the existing system

  2. Revolution - Attempting to overturn the system

Survival by Acquiescence

The probability of survival by acquiescence P(S|A) is modeled as:

\[P(S|A) = \text{Sigmoid}(W - S_{min})\]

Where:

  • W = Current wealth

  • S_min = Subsistence threshold

When wealth is well above subsistence, acquiescence offers high survival probability. As wealth approaches subsistence, this probability drops.

Survival by Revolution

The probability of survival by revolution P(S|R) is:

\[P(S|R) = \frac{O}{R}\]

Where:

  • O = Organization (class solidarity, unions, parties)

  • R = Repression (state capacity for violence)

Rupture Condition

A Rupture Event (revolutionary moment) occurs when:

\[P(S|R) > P(S|A)\]

This happens when the system can no longer provide survival through normal channels, AND revolutionary organization exceeds repressive capacity.

Loss Aversion

The model incorporates loss aversion - agents weight potential losses more heavily than equivalent gains. This creates a bias toward acquiescence that must be overcome by significant material degradation.

Material Basis of Survival

While the calculus above describes decisions, the Vitality System enforces the biological constraints of those decisions. It operates in a strict three-phase materialist causality chain:

  1. Phase 1: The Drain (Subsistence Burn) Wealth is consumed based on population size and subsistence multipliers.

    \[Cost = (S_{base} \times Population) \times \mu_{subsistence}\]

  2. Phase 2: Grinding Attrition (Inequality Mortality) When wealth is insufficient, the “Mass Line” coverage ratio determines mortality. High inequality increases the wealth threshold needed to prevent death.

    \[ \begin{align}\begin{aligned}Threshold = 1.0 + Inequality\\Deficit = \max(0, Threshold - \frac{Wealth}{Needs})\\Deaths = Population \times (Deficit \times (0.5 + Inequality))\end{aligned}\end{align} \]

  3. Phase 3: The Reaper (Extinction Check) Entities with zero population or those trapped in a “zombie state” (population=1 but starving) are marked inactive.

This system ensures that bad survival strategies result in physical elimination, not just poor scores.

Implementation

See the survival formulas in babylon.formulas:

See Also