babylon.formulas.survival_calculus

Survival Calculus formulas.

Core formulas for revolutionary decision-making:

  • P(S|A) = 1 / (1 + e^(-k(x - x_crit))) : Survival via acquiescence (sigmoid)

  • P(S|R) = Cohesion / (Repression + eps) : Survival via revolution

  • Crossover: wealth where P(S|R) = P(S|A) (revolution becomes rational)

  • Loss Aversion: lambda = 2.25 (Kahneman-Tversky)

Functions

apply_loss_aversion(value)

Amplify losses by 2.25x (Kahneman-Tversky).

calculate_acquiescence_probability(wealth, ...)

P(S|A) sigmoid.

calculate_crossover_threshold(cohesion, ...)

Wealth level where P(S|R) = P(S|A) (revolution becomes rational).

calculate_revolution_probability(cohesion, ...)

P(S|R) = Cohesion / (Repression + eps).
babylon.formulas.survival_calculus.calculate_acquiescence_probability(wealth, subsistence_threshold, steepness_k)[source]

P(S|A) sigmoid. At threshold, probability = 0.5.

Parameters:

  • wealth (float) – Current wealth/resources.

  • subsistence_threshold (float) – Minimum for survival (x_critical).

  • steepness_k (float) – Curve steepness.

Return type:

float

Returns:

Probability [0, 1].

Examples

>>> calculate_acquiescence_probability(100.0, 100.0, 0.1)
0.5
babylon.formulas.survival_calculus.calculate_revolution_probability(cohesion, repression)[source]

P(S|R) = Cohesion / (Repression + eps). Capped at 1.0.

Parameters:

  • cohesion (float) – Organization level [0, 1].

  • repression (float) – State violence capacity [0, 1].

Return type:

float

Returns:

Probability [0, 1].

Examples

>>> calculate_revolution_probability(0.8, 0.2)
1.0
>>> calculate_revolution_probability(0.0, 0.5)
0.0
babylon.formulas.survival_calculus.calculate_crossover_threshold(cohesion, repression, subsistence_threshold, steepness_k)[source]

Wealth level where P(S|R) = P(S|A) (revolution becomes rational).

Parameters:

  • cohesion (float) – Organization level.

  • repression (float) – State violence capacity.

  • subsistence_threshold (float) – Acquiescence threshold.

  • steepness_k (float) – Acquiescence curve steepness.

Return type:

float

Returns:

Crossover wealth level [0, 1].

babylon.formulas.survival_calculus.apply_loss_aversion(value)[source]

Amplify losses by 2.25x (Kahneman-Tversky).

Parameters:

value (float) – Raw value change (negative = loss).

Return type:

float

Returns:

Perceived value (losses amplified).

Examples

>>> apply_loss_aversion(100.0)
100.0
>>> apply_loss_aversion(-100.0)
-225.0